Will global inflation subside?

“El riesgo de una recesión global absoluta está aumentando. Si los bancos centrales continúan aumentando sus tasas de política, todo lo que hará será aumentar el costo de los préstamos para los consumidores y las empresas, lo que llevará a las empresas más débiles a la bancarrota y suprimirá la demanda en todos los ámbitos. Claro, eso finalmente puede reducir la inflación, pero solo a través de una depresión.”

Imagen tomada del Banco Mundial.

Michael Roberts Blog

Is the global inflationary spiral peaking?  And if it is and inflation is set to fall over the next year, then has the inflation scare been just a momentary blip and now things will start to turn back to the previously low pace of inflation in the prices of goods and services?

That seems to the view of investors in financial assets in the US, where the stock market has rallied by as much as 20% from lows in mid-June; and both government and corporate bond yields have steadied. Markets seem to believe in what is called the ‘Fed pivot’, where the US Federal Reserve, having hiked its policy rate aggressively since April, will now start to end its hikes going into 2023 as inflation subsides.

Certainly, there is some evidence of peaking inflation in the US where the consumer price inflation (CPI) rate slowed more than expected in July…

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Has globalisation ended?

Apart from inflation and war, what grips current economic thought is the apparent failure of what mainstream economics likes to call ‘globalisation’.  What mainstream economics means by globalisation is the expansion of trade and capital flows freely across borders.  In 2000, the IMF identified four basic aspects of globalisation: trade and transactions, capital and investment movements, migration and […]

Has globalisation ended?

The three contradictions of the Long Depression

One of my basic theses about modern capitalism is that since 2008, the major capitalist economies have been in what I call a Long Depression.  In my book of 2016 of the same name, I distinguish between what economists call recessions or slumps in production, investment and employment; and depressions.  Under the capitalist mode of […]

The three contradictions of the Long Depression